Reports from Guinea-Bissau indicate a sudden and dramatic escalation of political tension as a group of military officers claim to have taken control of the country. This development comes amid unconfirmed reports that President Umaro Sissoco Embaló has been arrested following gunfire in the capital, Bissau.

According to government sources who spoke to the BBC, Embaló was allegedly detained shortly after gunshots were heard in central Bissau on Friday afternoon. Witnesses reported a burst of gunfire around 13:00 GMT, prompting widespread panic as residents scrambled for safety. Although the exact source of the shooting remains unclear, the reports immediately fueled speculation of a coup attempt in the small West African nation.

The alleged military takeover comes only three days after a controversial presidential election that was already mired in tension. The poll was overshadowed by the disqualification of the main opposition candidate, a move that drew criticism from civil society groups and international observers. The official results had not yet been released, but both Embaló and his closest challenger, Fernando Dias, had publicly claimed victory, raising fears of a constitutional crisis even before Friday’s events.

Rising Tension After Disputed Election

Political analysts say the nation’s fragile political climate made it particularly vulnerable to unrest. The disqualification of the major opposition candidate raised questions about transparency in the electoral process. Many voters expressed frustration that their preferred candidate had been blocked from contesting, heightening uncertainty about the credibility of the poll.

Both major campaigns had spent the days following the vote preparing for what seemed to be inevitable disputes. The electoral commission had announced that it expected to publish the results on Thursday, but the delay created further anxiety, giving room for speculation, misinformation, and rising political tempers.

Fernando Dias, who represents a coalition of smaller opposition parties, told local reporters earlier in the week that he had “confidence that the people’s voice would prevail,” even as he accused the ruling party of attempting to manipulate the process. Embaló, on the other hand, insisted he had secured a “clear and decisive victory.”

The absence of official results, combined with these conflicting claims, created fertile ground for unrest.

Gunfire Sparks Panic in the Capital

Friday’s gunfire only intensified fears. AFP reported that hundreds of residents fled on foot and in vehicles as shots rang out in the capital’s central districts. Local businesses quickly closed, and some residents sheltered inside schools, shops, and places of worship until the shooting subsided.

Videos shared on social media — which have not yet been independently verified — showed people running through market areas, shouting warnings about an attempted coup. Security forces were also seen moving through parts of the city, though their allegiance and objectives remain unclear.

A resident of Bissau told a local radio station that the situation “felt like déjà vu,” referencing the country’s long history of political instability. “We just want peace. We are tired of coups, tired of guns, tired of uncertainty,” she said.

A Nation with a Troubled Political History

Guinea-Bissau, with a population of just under two million people, is one of the poorest countries in the world. Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, the nation has struggled to maintain long-term political stability. Its modern history has been marked by turbulence, including nine coups or attempted coups since 1980.

Many of these coups have been linked to political rivalries within the military, economic struggles, and allegations of corruption among national leaders. International partners have repeatedly urged reforms within Guinea-Bissau’s security sector, noting that political interference within the military remains a persistent problem.

President Embaló, who came to power in 2020, has himself survived two previous attempts to overthrow him, the most recent occurring in December 2023. That attempt, according to the government, was carried out by a group of soldiers who stormed key state institutions before being subdued by loyalist forces. Embaló has often described these repeated attacks as evidence of a “deep-rooted instability” within the country’s political structure.

International Response Begins to Build

As news of the latest alleged takeover spread, international organisations began monitoring the situation closely. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has been involved in peacekeeping and election observation in Guinea-Bissau in the past, is expected to issue a statement once more information becomes available.

ECOWAS has often taken a strong stance against military seizures of power in the region and has imposed sanctions in similar situations, including in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Diplomats familiar with the region say any response will depend heavily on whether Embaló’s reported arrest can be confirmed and whether the military officers claiming control present a unified front.

The African Union (AU) has also historically condemned unconstitutional changes of government and may call for a swift restoration of civilian rule if a coup is verified.

Unanswered Questions and a Nation on Edge

As of Friday evening, many key details remained unconfirmed. The identity of the military officers claiming power has not been publicly disclosed, and no official statement has been issued by the presidency or the army’s top command.

The condition and location of President Embaló are also unknown. Government sources who spoke to the BBC provided no further details beyond stating that he had been detained. Officials close to the administration have remained silent, likely due to uncertainty about who currently holds power.

The streets of Bissau, usually bustling on Friday afternoons, were reported to be largely deserted as residents stayed indoors awaiting updates. Some community leaders urged calm, while religious groups called for prayers and restraint to avoid further violence.

A Crisis with Regional Implications

Guinea-Bissau’s instability has long been a concern for West Africa, a region where several governments have collapsed in recent years due to military coups. Analysts warn that recurring instability in the region could undermine economic development, weaken democratic institutions, and disrupt regional trade.

If the situation in Guinea-Bissau develops into a full military takeover, it may prompt stronger diplomatic interventions from ECOWAS, the AU, and possibly the United Nations.

For now, the country remains in uncertainty, waiting for clarity on who holds power, what triggered the shooting, and whether the situation will escalate or stabilise in the coming days.